Pistachios may the flavour of the moment, but it’s almonds that are expected to take centrestage by 2030.

According to research by Rabobank the Australian almond sector is anticipated to enter a new era, and large scale orchard replanting is underway.

The research, titled Australain Almond Outlook: Replanting for growth beyond beyond 2030, stated the Australian almond industry is entering a pivotal transition phase, which has been marked by the renewal of ageing orchards and expansion into new areas.

“The next five years will begin the first large-scale replanting cycle that (along with expansion into new regions) sets the foundation for long-term growth in the Australian almond industry,” the report said.

This expansion could see the the total planted area of almonds in Australia lift by between 5000 and 10,000 hectares – the equivalent of 7 to 15 per cent growth in total area – by 2030. In addition to this, positive global demand for almonds, coupled with limited production growth in California, the world’s largest almond producer and Australia’s main export competitor, should contribute to an improving market outlook.

Report author RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott said the next five years will see the first large-scale replanting occur in Australia’s burgeoning almond industry, with many of the sector’s first-established 10,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2001 to 2005 reaching the end of their productive life between now and 2030.

“This represents approximately 16 per cent  of the total area of Australian almonds in 2024, which will require replanting over the next five years,” she said.

In addition to this, an additional 13,000 hectares of almond trees planted between 2006 and 2010 are expected to need replanting in the coming five years as the productivity of older plants declines.

Ms Piggott said that although the replanting effort may flatten production levels from now until 2030, longer term it should support further production growth for the industry. Added to this, she said, there has also been a “step change” in new orchard developments after five years of declining yearly plantings, with 2024 seeing 2634 hectares of new almond tree plantings, bringing total planted area in Australia to 66,095 hectares.

“And we expect to see further orchard developments as almonds will likely continue to be one of the highest value use cases for water in the southern Murray Darling Basin,” she said.

Although orchard expansion will likely occur at a slower rate that the last wave of plantings from 2016 to2019, RaboRsearch sees scope for total almond area in Australia to reach between 71,000 and 76,000 hectares by 2030, “driven by land use change (from other commodities) and also by orchards developed outside traditional growing regions”.

The report noted, “cost of funding, land and water availability, and drought risk will remain as key forces impacting the levels of orchard development”.

Ms Piggott said that although Australian almond production was down 4.6 per cent on the previous year to 155,697 tonnes KWE (kernel weight equivalent), this figure was still up 19 per cent on the five-year average. Further, the upcoming 2026 almond harvest was expected to be another good season in terms of both yields and prices.

“Better climactic conditions and improvements in prices should lead to margin improvements this year for the majority of growers,” the report said.