New data from Square’s 2026 Local Economy Report suggests the real money-maker isn’t the big spender; it’s the regular who pops in every week for a coffee, a trim, or a quick browse. And over time, they’re worth their weight in gold.

The Square Local Economy Report found regular customers generate five times more revenue annually than one-off visitors.  While one-off customers might splash more cash in a single visit, they don’t stick around. Regulars, on the other hand, come back again and again, on average 12 times a year, and that steady rhythm is what builds real revenue.

Square’s Head of Account Management in Australia David Schnabl suggests this is great news for a sector under pressure.

“Right now, with businesses feeling the pressure, it’s tempting to chase the bigger sale. But the data shows it’s the regular who really matters: someone who pops in every week is far more valuable than someone who splurges once and doesn’t come back,” he said.

For businesses, that means becoming part of someone’s weekly routine is the goal.

Spreading the loyalty love

Interestingly, the report found loyal customers don’t just stick with one business. They move around their local strip, creating what Square calls a “neighbourhood network effect”. So your café regular may also be hitting the wine bar down the road, grabbing a haircut nearby and popping into the local boutique.

The data reveals nearly three in four Australians shop locally at least once a week, often visiting multiple businesses in one trip.

Schnabl explains the impact of the ‘neighbourhood effect’:

“City centres depend on traffic while neighbourhoods depend on loyalty. When customers are spending most of their time and money close to home, one strong business can lift the others around it,” he said.

So, if your neighbour is thriving, that’s actually good news for you.

The suburbs are where it’s at

If you needed another sign the CBD isn’t the centre of the universe anymore, here it is. Square’s data found Australians are increasingly living, working and spending locally. In fact, 68 per cent of dining spend now happens in neighbourhood venues, rather than the CBD.

Mike Ico, co-founder of Marrickville’s Superfreak, Soulmate & Splash, said location strategy has shifted.

“We think it’s better to open in a residential area because you get that everyday trade – and you also have that community from all the local neighbours,” he said.

Moreover, loyalty among locals is having a real commercial impact.

Square’s data shows businesses using tools like email marketing and loyalty programs are far more likely to have regular customers; 93 per cent versus just 39 per cent without them.

And those loyalty tools and rewards are translating to revenue. They deliver four times more daily transactions and three times more daily spend.

Stefanie Breschi, co-founder of Melbourne eatery Suupaa, has seen the loyalty effect in action.

“When customers feel recognised and rewarded, they come back more often. We’ve seen first-hand how building those relationships turns occasional shoppers into regulars,” she said.

Customer satisfaction

With cost-of-living pressures still biting, most Australians aren’t planning to spend more this year. Fortunately for small business owners, they are sticking to their usual habits. Around 68 per cent expect their local spending to stay the same in 2026.

That means growth won’t come from more customers or bigger purchases. It’ll come from getting people to come back more often, becoming part of their routine, and delivering consistent value and experience.

“The smart play in 2026 is simple: give people a reason to return,” Schnabl said.

There’s a bit of a mindset shift here for small business owners. Instead of chasing that one big sale or viral moment, the real opportunity lies elsewhere. Become the place people default to. The one they swing by without thinking. The one that feels familiar.

This article first appeared on Flying Solo and has been republished with permission.