A new report has shown the impact of the cocoa crisis still lies ahead of us.

Soaring Cocoa prices: The worst is yet to come report, undertaken by food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank, said it’s likely significantly higher chocolate prices will likely hit shelves in the coming months and going into 2025.

“…providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector, which is already battling a longer-term structural decline in demand,” the report said.

The report said a cocoa crisis was triggering the price increases. In an unprecedented surge, the report said, cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years.

“Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said.

“This dramatic increase, fueled by a global cocoa shortage, is primarily due to a disappointing harvest in West Africa, the source of 70 per cent of the world’s cocoa.

“The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) reports a 14.2 per cent drop in global cocoa production for the 2023/24 season, leading to a shortage of approximately 462,000 metric tons and the lowest cocoa stocks in 22 years.”

“Chocolate manufacturers are struggling with soaring cocoa costs, which are reflected in higher local retail prices.

“This is illustrated in the most recent quarterly (June) Consumer Price Index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed year-on-year inflation. This followed a similar-sized year-on-year jump seen in the June 2023 quarter, so the cumulative increase in this category between June 2022 and June 2024 is 21.8 per cent.

Mr Joules said despite recent price increases, the full force of the cocoa crisis is likely yet to be felt on supermarket shelves globally.

“Due to the lag in the supply chain and existing contracts, the steepest price hikes are anticipated in the second half of 2024 and into 2025,” he said.

“This would inevitably lead to higher prices for consumers, particularly for dark chocolates with higher cocoa content.