Australian consumers can expect some relief from retail chocolate price spikes following record highs in recent years, according to new research by Rabobank.

The international report published by the agribusiness banking specialist reports that cocoa price surges in recent years is a result of persistent environmental challenges.

Poor harvests, diseased crops, and supply chain issues have seen the cocoa market “in crisis” state since 2021.

While chocolate prices are set to fall significantly by mid-2027, RaboResearch agriculturalist Paul Joules says that ongoing climate challenges will prevent retail prices from dropping to pre- “cocoa crisis” levels.

“This has led manufacturers and retailers to expand their value ranges, offering more affordable alternatives to cost-conscious shoppers,” he said.

Mr Joules said chocolate manufacturers have introduced strategies like “shrinkflation” and “skimpflation” to keep business afloat and customers happy.

“Shrinkflation involves reducing pack sizes, while skimpflation changes recipes to lower cocoa content, often replacing cocoa butter with cheaper fats or fillers,” he said.

Mr Joules said that challenges in the cocoa market have seen some European manufacturers alter their products so considerably that they can no longer be legally called “chocolate”.

Updating product descriptions is just one way that chocolate brands are adapting to ensure resilience for cocoa futures.

Mr Joules said investing in new farming techniques and cocoa alternatives may help address climate issues, such as prematurely aging cocoa trees.

“Technologies such as lab-grown cocoa and precision fermentation are part of this strategic shift,” he said.

“The chocolate market is entering a new era of higher costs and persistent volatility, requiring agility and continuous adaptation from industry players. While the peak of chocolate retail price inflation may be behind us, the pressure remains, and the industry is hedging its bets for a resilient future.”